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    全链条视角下我国煤炭安全评估与对策

    Research on coal safety assessment and countermeasures in China from the whole chain perspective

    • 摘要: 在“双碳”目标与能源结构转型的关键时期,我国以煤为主的能源结构短期内难以根本改变,煤炭作为能源安全“压舱石”的地位突出,但同时面临保供与降碳的双重挑战。为统筹煤炭保供与降碳,解决现有能源安全研究对煤炭关注不足、缺乏全链条视角的问题,明确我国煤炭供需及安全状况,为优化煤炭开发利用、保障能源安全提供依据。采用桑基图绘制2022年中国煤流图,可视化分析煤炭供需情况;从资源、开采、生产、运输、消费和生态6个环节构建全链条煤炭安全体系(含19个指标),并运用SWOT分析法,以供应链环节为内部环境、消费和生态为外部环境,剖析煤炭安全态势。结果表明:2022年我国煤炭生产与消费均增长,供应自主性较强,但消费集中于火力发电、炼焦等领域,洗选损耗问题突出;全链条安全呈现复杂局面,资源上储量丰富但储采比低(35 a)且分布失衡,开采安全前期改善后近年事故指标反弹,生产集中化提升效率但加剧运输压力,运输形成多元格局仍面临供需错位挑战,消费需求高位增长且对外依存度低,生态方面碳排放占比高,占化石能源碳排放的55%左右;SWOT分析显示,内部优势为储量与产量充足、运输能力强等,劣势为储采比低、安全事故反弹,外部机遇为低对外依存度、生态指标良好,威胁为高消费占比、碳排放压力大。通过全链条视角整合煤流分析与安全评价,提出的资源保障、安全管理、运输优化等政策建议,可为提升煤炭供应安全、推动行业绿色转型提供科学参考。

       

      Abstract: In the critical period of the “dual-carbon” goals and energy structure transformation, China’s coal-dominated energy structure is difficult to fundamentally change in the short term. Coal, as the “ballast stone” of energy security, has a prominent position, but it also faces the dual challenges of ensuring supply and reducing carbon. To coordinate coal supply guarantee and carbon reduction, address the issues of insufficient attention to coal in existing energy security research and the lack of a whole-chain perspective, clarify China’s coal supply-demand and security status, and provide a basis for optimizing coal development and utilization and ensuring energy security, the following methods are adopted. It uses Sankey diagrams to draw China’s coal flow chart for 2022, conducting a visual analysis of coal supply and demand; constructs a whole-chain coal security system (including 19 indicators) from six links: resources, mining, production, transportation, consumption, and ecology, and applies SWOT analysis to dissect the coal security situation, with the supply chain links as the internal environment and consumption and ecology as the external environment. The results show that in 2022, both coal production and consumption in China increased, with strong supply autonomy, but consumption was concentrated in fields such as thermal power generation and coking, and the problem of loss in washing was prominent. The whole-chain security presents a complex situation: in terms of resources, there are abundant reserves but a low reserve-production ratio (35 years) and unbalanced distribution; in mining safety, after initial improvements, accident indicators have rebounded in recent years; production centralization improves efficiency but exacerbates transportation pressure; transportation has formed a diversified pattern but still faces the challenge of supply-demand mismatch; consumption demand grows at a high level with low foreign dependence; ecologically, carbon emissions account for a high proportion, accounting for about 55% of fossil energy carbon emissions. SWOT analysis shows that internal strengths include sufficient reserves and output, and strong transportation capacity; weaknesses are low reserve-production ratio and rebound in safety accidents; external opportunities are low foreign dependence and good ecological indicators; threats are high consumption proportion and great pressure from carbon emissions. Coal flow analysis and safety evaluation are integrated from a whole-chain perspective, and the proposed policy recommendations such as resource guarantee, safety management, and transportation optimization can provide scientific references for improving coal supply security and promoting green transformation of the industry.

       

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