Abstract: To address the difficulty of representing local aquiclude absence and its dynamic recharge effects in conventional homogenized models, a comparative prediction method based on the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) that incorporates a real hydrogeological skylight model is developed, an intact-aquiclude control model, and a successive-panel prediction model for longwall panels 3104, 3105, and 3106 in the 3−1 coal seam of Zhangjiamao Coal Mine. Local absence of the loess-laterite aquiclude is explicitly represented as a vertical hydraulic connection, and the model is calibrated and validated using observation-well heads, drainage-test data, and measured inflow processes from panels 3104 and 3105. Under an intact aquiclude, both adjacent panels show rapid attenuation dominated by the release of static groundwater storage. Under hydrogeological window conditions, panel 3104 exhibits sustained high inflow, whereas panel 3105 shows a delayed surge after advancing into the window area, accompanied by hydraulic interaction and groundwater-flow capture between adjacent panels. Based on the calibrated and validated model, the predicted peak inflow of panel 3106 is 278.3 m³/h. The proposed method simultaneously predicts peak magnitude, surge timing, and attenuation and provides a transferable numerical approach for dynamic mine-inflow prediction in shallow coalfields with locally absent aquicludes.